You know the guy selling sunglasses on the street?

Well, that guy does something smart.

As soon as it starts raining, he’s selling umbrellas and ponchos.

Might sound pretty obvious but there are many businesses that just don’t adapt to market conditions.

The tricky part is seeing the rain.

Blockbuster said: “our data show that people still like the experience of walking into a brick and mortar store.”

The trouble is that this was true–at least, it’s what people reported to be true. It’s what the customers themselves thought to be true.

It’s just that, when faced with the choice, people prefer sitting on the couch and watching Netflix.

“Self-report” is a pretty poor assessment of the truth unless you’re literally just looking for people’s perceptions.

A better assessment, in science, in business, and in life is the assessment of actual behavior.

Measure actual market behavior and you will find the truth.

See the rain and it’ll be obvious that you need to sell umbrellas.

2 Minute Action

The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

What are the ways you’re measuring your success?

Sales? Impact stories? Market Share? Lives saved?

Take 2 minutes to identify 3-5 ways you’re measuring success.

Once you’ve got a few, ask yourself: “how will I know when it’s raining?”

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