How To Be Wrong 98% of The Time And Still Be Right
The Moon Landing
The computer that directs the space shuttle to the moon does two things: inspect and adapt.
If the ship is a little off-course, it adjusts the trajectory and pushed onward. Inspect course. Adapt course.
Doesn't sound too crazy at first but it's remarkable when we realize that it's something like 98% of the journey the space shuttle is "off-course."
The Punchline
As we each walk through our days, optimizing our routines, squeezing just a little more out of daylight, looking for those hacks that will promise us disproportionately high results . . .
Keep in mind that it's not about looking like you're on course, it's about inspecting and adapting. 98% of the time, you'll be wrong, off the mark, and spending your energy re-calibrating.
That's the un-sexy part of what we do.
It's the "no pain, no gain" part.
But it's also the conscious recognition that it's normal to be 98% "off-course."
So it's not the course that's important, after all.
Being productive, then, is about inspecting progress and adapting to reality--not necessarily about pushing forward at full speed.
2 Minute Action
What things in your life might be signs that you're on the right trajectory?
If you're not sure, you may want to try asking yourself:
- What activities make you feel the most alive?
- What activities make you feel the most dead?
- What % of your time are you spending on each?
Asking yourself this will take 2 minutes and can make a profound impact on the work you seek and the life you live if done on a consistent basis.
How The Data Will Hurt You
Blockbuster said, "our data show that people still like the experience of walking into a store and choosing a movie."The FBI had all the data they needed on September 10th in their Sentinel program, but they were unable to communicate on time.So what happened?
BLOCKBUSTER
People like sitting on the couch and watching Netflix for $7 more than going into a store. And Blockbuster's billion-dollar empire is down to one remaining store somewhere in Alaska.They thought they had all of the data in front of them but weren't looking at the whole picture.
FBI
The FBI didn't know what they knew. They had everything they needed to put the case together but their Virtual Case File system couldn't help different departments put the picture together.They had records of Al Qaeda activists entering the country in the weeks and months before 9/11. One office was suspicious of a specific terrorist.Another department wondered why so many suspicious foreigners were getting flight training. Another had someone on a watch list but never told anyone. No one in the Bureau ever put it all together
The Moral of the Story
Obviously, we can see here that having the data is important, but processing and analyzing it is equally important for a successful outcome (at least in a zero-sum game like these examples).The issue with the "Information Age" that we're living in now is that we're flooded with what looks like data. Yet, scientific literacy in the United States is surprisingly low considering the resources available.I'm not talking about fake news and Twitter bots.I'm talking about what people choose to believe without inspecting the source of information.The insights that can come along with analyzing data are just as inaccessible as if we had no data at all, and sometimes worse.The data are useless if we don't have the critical thinking skills to detect what's b.s. and what's valuable.The data are dangerous if we mistake b.s. for value and proliferate it.
2 Minute Action
What is a primary source? Secondary source?What does "empirically supported" mean?It takes 2 minutes to look up these definitions. Hopefully, they help you ask better questions about the information that enters your view.It's up to you to define your world-view and perspective.Use data.Be relentless in your pursuit of the truth.And when you err, err on the side of helping others.
Read This If You Feel Guilty Taking Breaks
You know the feeling.You should have been working.You might have a deadline, you might not, but you're somehow still just plain guilty.And I'm sure you've heard the pitch that "taking a break is good for productivity!"Just look at the Pomodoro technique, which advises 25-minute bursts of activity before taking 3-5 minute breaks.And sometimes that's true. Most people have about 3-4 hours of highly focused attention and energy before they get fatigued and need to reset. There is huge variance here, so don't accept this number as the gold standard.Over time, like training in a gym, you can improve your number.You've probably also read stats somewhere claiming that the human attention span is about 8 seconds (compared to the 9 seconds of a goldfish,) and that it's shrinking probably due to our use of smart devices.
A Brief Aside:
. . . Please check your sources. Most of these claims come from a report from the Consumer Insights Team from Microsoft Canada who surveyed ~2,000 people in 2015. This is not an empirically based study, it hasn't been replicated, and there is no other body of evidence in the field support this. Just a public service reminder that not everything you read on the internet is verified.
So here's the answer:
I'm not going to tell you the same B.S.:
- "Listen to what your body needs."
- "Breaks help increase productivity."
- "Stop feeling guilty because it's actually good for you."
No.Feel guilty.You're allowed to feel however you're going to feel. That's how feelings work and that's the punchline.It's only after you let yourself experience the feeling of guilt that you can 1) forgive yourself for not being perfect and 2) decide if you want to be present and deliberately experience your time off or get back in the saddle and push yourself.There's no right or wrong answer here.You do have to go through it, though.
2 Minute Action:
When was a time you recently felt guilty about something?Overeating? Taking a nap? Procrastinating?Now ask yourself this . . .
- What would happen if you didn't beat yourself up?
- What would you say to a friend or family member who was going through this?
- What might your best friend advise you to do?
Try using these questions "in the moment" and see if you can better regulate your emotion and get your head back in the game whether that means pushing your limits or getting an extra REM cycle.It's up to you and there's no wrong answer.You're just responsible for learning.